Objective: To determine the most cost-effective outpatient testing strategy for diagnosing endometrial cancer in women with postmenopausal bleeding (PMB).
Design: Decision analysis modelling.
Population: Women with postmenopausal bleeding.
Methods: A decision analytic model was constructed to reflect current service provision, which evaluated 12 diagnostic strategies using endometrial biopsy (EB), ultrasonography (USS) (4- and 5-mm endometrial thickness cutoff) and hysteroscopy. Diagnostic probability estimates were derived from systematic quantitative reviews, clinical outcomes from published literature and cost estimates from local and NHS sources.
Main outcome measures: The cost per additional life year gained (pound/LYG) was determined and compared for each diagnostic strategy, and sensitivity analyses were performed.
Results: Compared with carrying out no initial investigation, a strategy based on initial diagnosis with USS using a 5-mm cutoff was the least expensive (11,470 pound/LYG). Initial investigation with EB or USS using a 4-mm cutoff was comparably cost-effective (less than 30,000 pound/LYG versus USS with a 5-mm cutoff) at their most favourable diagnostic performance and at disease prevalence of 10% or more. The strategies involving initial evaluation with test combinations or hysteroscopy alone were not cost-effective.
Conclusions: Women presenting for the first time with PMB should undergo initial evaluation with USS or EB.